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Global Warming to hit the Stomach
Agriculture
is vulnerable to global warming and the world's most widely eaten grains
i.e. rice, wheat and corn are exquisitely sensitive to higher temperature
The impact of global warming on agriculture in developing countries, and
particularly in countries like India, that depend on rain for irrigation,
are likely to be devastating. Rice crop in much of India will be affected
by the global warming. Wheat, the source of one-fifth of the world's food,
could be clobbered by climate change. Most of the hunger, resulting from
global warming, is likely to be felt by those who are not responsible for
contributing to the cause of the problem i.e. the people of developing
countries. Global warming may be a boon to agriculture for the richer
northern countries, which are actually responsible for the greenhouse gas
emissions, causing the climate change. With climate change, the
agricultural areas in the tropics will decline, causing a situation that
those who are well off now will be better off in the future, and those who
are in problems will be prone to greater problems. A rough rule of thumb
developed by crop scientists is that, for every 1-degree Celsius increase
in temperature, above the mid-30s, during key stages in the growing
season, such as pollination, yields fall about 10 per cent. Optimum
growing conditions for most of the crops, generally range from about 20 to
35 degrees, and then diminish sharply. At 40 degrees, heat stress causes
photosynthesis to shut down. Indo-Gangetic Plain is the wheat-growing area
of India representing one of the world's most significant victories
against food shortages. This is the region, where wheat and rice
scientists saw during green revolution in the 1970s, the first big gains
that were coming out of modern plant-breeding techniques. The climate
change may erase all the gains that accrued here as a result of the
technological advancements.
Globally,
the food surpluses have been nibbled down to the point where practically
nothing is left in the bin for coping with even one disappointing harvest.
The unfortunate reality is that the cushion for dealing with climate
change now is less than it's been for 34 years, because in six out of the
last seven years world grain production has fallen short of consumption.
In
case of rice, researchers have found the rice plants are most sensitive to
higher night-time temperatures. Average global temperatures are likely to
rise between 1.1 to 6.4 degrees over the next century. Global warming will
alter rainfall patterns, causing increasing numbers of droughts and
floods, which will cause decline in production of most of the crops.
Perhaps
the best-known worrier about climate change and its impact on agriculture
is Lester Brown, founder of the Earth Policy Institute, a U.S.
environmental think tank, and proponent of the view that global warming
and agriculture are on a collision course. "It certainly looms
large," Mr. Brown says of the threat posed to farming by a warmer
world. It had been assumed in the 1980s, based on greenhouse experiments,
that an atmosphere richer in carbon dioxide would stimulate plant growth,
raising some crop yields by as much as 30 per cent. Now Scientists have
made another contradictory discovery, about carbon dioxide, the new
research, based on experiments in the U.S., Japan, Switzerland and New
Zealand found the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide were vastly
overrated, when crops were grown in the more realistic setting of open
farm fields, rather than in greenhouses. Corn yields didn't rise at all,
and the rise in wheat and rice yields was less than half previous
estimates. That is why, till recently, few people worried much about
agriculture and global warming. It was thought that, while climate change
might cause havoc on ice-dependent polar bears and low-lying coastal
cities, it might be a boom for farmers.
By Ms.Meenakshi kaul B.Tech Dr. Sushila Kaul Ph.D.
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